Getting the character you want, How likely/unlikely is it? (Drop Rates)

Hey guys, if you are reading this I hope you have a fantastic day. Anyway, my openings have been many, yet there is a bot I cannot seem to pull a 3* version of even though he is so blatantly common (MV1). Now, as I progress in this game (LV 41 atm) I can't help but ponder about how drop rates work in this game. Is it truly random? Is it based off of your roster? Does the game have a bias in giving duplicates? Does the game have a bias in giving new bots? Is the game programmed to not allow certain bots to drop at all?

Comment below what you think or what you have experienced, and no smart-ass comments.

Comments

  • DirculesDircules Posts: 467
    I believe there could be a very complex algorithm to determining the weights of each possibility before rolling the dice. Most notably for the feature crystals. 90% or more of the 4* I've pulled from those are in fact the feature bot. Statistically very unlikely if the odds were even for all 4* in it.

    As to what factors play a role in this determination I can't begin to guess. Empty spots in rosters, time since last rank-up, money spent, time invested in a bot or overall activity? Who knows, and you'll never figure it out. There is still randomisation involved so everything you think you find can be a streak of (bad) luck and it would literally take millions of dollars to get numbers large enough to diminish that.
  • OP7842OP7842 Posts: 35
    I've got no idea how it works, but in my roster I have 18 x 3* bots and 2 x 4* bots and not 1 tactician amongst them. I don't care which one I get, but hopefully I spin at least one up soon.
  • Good questions here! While we don't disclose specifics about drop rates (and you're welcome to discuss them further) we can alleviate some of these questions and concerns!

    Crystals do NOT look at your account. The items you receive are random (of course different crystals have different items available). Therefore, it doesn't matter what you already have in your roster, how much you've spent, how much you've played, or which bot you want the most (ok, that last one would actually be considered mind reading... but yeah, we don't do that either).

    There's a little more information here in our Support Knowldegbase, which you can also reach in-game by tapping the gear in the upper left corner of your base screen, then choosing "Support".

    I hope this information helps!
  • TotherkinsTotherkins Posts: 269
    The only trend I've seen is you have a streak where you'll pull new/different bots and other times where you'll only pull dupes of pre-existing bots. This is a conspiracy theory based upon about 2 years of opening 4 stars...so take it with a grain of salt but it's the only pattern I've seen.
  • TrailfireTrailfire Posts: 590
    Toth's is of course a pattern you would absolutely expect to see in a random process :)
  • Drake6401Drake6401 Posts: 321
    There is definitely a difference in drop rates. I have a BoneCrusher with ability level 80, yet still there's 2 stars I don't even have yet.
  • TrailfireTrailfire Posts: 590
    edited August 2017
    Also something you'd expect to happen occasionally in a random process
  • AAGZ0921AAGZ0921 Posts: 153
    Dumbest thing ever is to call 2* Bots "Premium". Premium is something that very few people are lucky to have. Not the same useless crap they throw at you after battling it out for days on end in hopes that you will get something good. As was said in Batman vs. Superman "Take a jar of piss and call it granny's peach tea".

    Ready to be silenced by mods in 3...2...1...
  • AAGZ0921AAGZ0921 Posts: 153
    And there is an offer for MV1 Optimus prime right now.
  • ManthroManthro Posts: 1,956
    AAGZ0921 wrote: »
    And there is an offer for MV1 Optimus prime right now.

    No.. there is an offer for a chance at MV1... For which you will draw 10 2* bots and then come back here to cry.
  • juliusjulius Posts: 66
    Lol, so true... Now I come back to cry.
    Manthro wrote: »
    AAGZ0921 wrote: »
    And there is an offer for MV1 Optimus prime right now.

    No.. there is an offer for a chance at MV1... For which you will draw 10 2* bots and then come back here to cry.

  • DirculesDircules Posts: 467
    edited August 2017
    Good questions here! While we don't disclose specifics about drop rates (and you're welcome to discuss them further) we can alleviate some of these questions and concerns!

    Crystals do NOT look at your account. The items you receive are random (of course different crystals have different items available). Therefore, it doesn't matter what you already have in your roster, how much you've spent, how much you've played, or which bot you want the most (ok, that last one would actually be considered mind reading... but yeah, we don't do that either).

    There's a little more information here in our Support Knowldegbase, which you can also reach in-game by tapping the gear in the upper left corner of your base screen, then choosing "Support".

    I hope this information helps!

    Tenebrous, thank you for your canned answer. But I can guarantee you that crystals look at your account. Now, technically what I am experiencing can be explained by random, but the odds are .... astronomical.

    My anectode is based on my beloved 1* crystals, they only have 6 options. I did not have any 1* bots. Opened 6 crystals, 6 new bots. Possible, not very likely, but possible. I forge the Motormaster, spin a crystal. Motormaster. I forge the BC, spin a crystal. BC. Forge MM again, another crystal. MM. Every. Single. Time.

    Just did the math: 1 x 5/6 x 4/6 x 3/6 x 2/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 = 0.00007. That is, in percentage chance: 0.007%. Chance of 1 in 700.000.

    So yeah, officially it's random, but it's really not. And if it isn't on 1* crystals, then I don't believe that it is for any other crystal. But how to bend them to your will? Who knows!
  • DirculesDircules Posts: 467
    Ok 1/14000, not 1/700000. Still not gonna happen when I just try it on a whim.
  • JKLJKL Posts: 329
    I would like to believe it's random too but I had zero 1*s. I opened 6 crystals, one at a time. No duplicates. I don't mind this at all for the 1*s, it's actually better this way.
  • JKLJKL Posts: 329
    @Dircules I also tested what you said and looks like you can control which 1* you want (once you have the six). Forge which type you need, then spin one crystal to get it back. Repeat over and over if you're looking for one specific class.
  • ManthroManthro Posts: 1,956
    Honestly, I prefer that the 1* crystals are not true random because you don't gain any benefit from duping them.

    I just hope the same does not hold true for the rest of the crystals is all.
  • JKLJKL Posts: 329
    Pretty sure it's only for the 1* crystals. Opened a 2* crystal and got a duplicate.
  • MutantdocMutantdoc Posts: 130
    For me the drop rates of a 4* are about 1/100. For me it's 99.9% chance of getting what I don't want. Imaging for the last 4* crystals I have opened , they were all Mirages! So instead of having a few great 4* champs I keep duping my Mirage. It's got to be a setup lol!
  • DirculesDircules Posts: 467
    JKL wrote: »
    Pretty sure it's only for the 1* crystals. Opened a 2* crystal and got a duplicate.

    Of course. My point is: Mod says crystals don't look at your account. I prove that they do. This leads me to 2 conclusions. 1) What else are mods here perpetuating that isn't true, and 2) if one crystal checks your account, the otters could too. In what manner can be different, but they can.
  • KillMasterCKillMasterC Posts: 1,086
    I only have one 4* bot, now my second 4* bot is ... a dupe! Wow that's lucky and unlucky depending on how you see it. Well at least that's a duped Grindor so I won't complain, but hey, what's if it's a Ratchet?
  • I haven't pulled a 4* yet. They're clearly rewarded to P2W players. Nothing but duplicate 1's and 2's, with the occasional 3*. That's it. It definitely has nothing to do with Commander Levels, or performance. $$$ Buy your way to victory...makes me sick.
  • MutantdocMutantdoc Posts: 130
    Mate when you Dupe 4* Mirage 4x in a row ...it's disappointing. I feel like Kabam has something against me
  • KillMasterCKillMasterC Posts: 1,086
    edited August 2017
    I haven't pulled a 4* yet. They're clearly rewarded to P2W players. Nothing but duplicate 1's and 2's, with the occasional 3*. That's it. It definitely has nothing to do with Commander Levels, or performance. $$$ Buy your way to victory...makes me sick.

    If you want 4*, don't rely on PBC.
    Grind in 4* and Crystal bounty arena.
    But first build up your 3* team and you should have at least 4 strong 3* bots (1200+) to beat the 15 wins streak in Bounty or 4* arena.
    To build 3* team, grind in 3* arena and gradually forged your 2* bots into 3* bots.
  • CandKaneCandKane Posts: 642
    Out of two 4* Crystals that I have opened since launch, both were Bonecrusher. Opened first one in early July I think, second one this morning. Not too unlikely, and at least BC gets awakened, but after reading the post about Mirage X4 I'm kinda paranoid.
  • MutantdocMutantdoc Posts: 130
    I kid you not. I got all my 4* from 4* crystals. I've been playing since beta in Dec 2016 and I never got any from premium crystals.
    Finally in a good alliance and I started getting 4* crystals. 1st one BC, 2nd Original Optimus, 3rd Mirage ... I was thinking this is good...
    Then 4th Mirage...ok at least he is awakened ... then 5th Mirage...then 6th Mirage ...wtf?
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