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Premium mod crystal broken?

I understand chances of any pull are random, but I'm finding the premium mod crystal in particular seems to be "stuck"...

The past 13 times in a row, I have pulled a 2* harm accelerator.

Anyone else run into this strange phenomenon?

Comments

  • MustangjonMustangjon Posts: 1,146
    You have roughly 5% chance to get 3* so sadly this isn't uncommon
  • TerminalTerminal Posts: 789
    how is the chance of a 3* relevant to getting the exact same item 13 times in a row?
  • XannenXannen Posts: 17
    I find this crystal to be far more stingy than premium bot crystals.. I've only got 3* twice from those crystals since beta, the rest from arena shards.
  • MustangjonMustangjon Posts: 1,146
    edited May 2017
    Terminal wrote: »
    how is the chance of a 3* relevant to getting the exact same item 13 times in a row?

    How many mods are there maybe 7-8 so probability of a dupe is high it's called rng
    ever fought with arcee and never critted an entire fight and another 10 hits in a row?
    I have mods that are 100 sig and others that are 50 sig it's rng
  • Mainer123Mainer123 Posts: 29
    Best thing to do is if like a hero or mod is get it do nothing to up grade because as soon as you act like your interested they shut down. How many times do you get stuff your full of and none of the stuff you need Hmmmmm
  • TerminalTerminal Posts: 789
    Mustangjon wrote: »
    Terminal wrote: »
    how is the chance of a 3* relevant to getting the exact same item 13 times in a row?

    How many mods are there maybe 7-8 so probability of a dupe is high it's called rng
    ever fought with arcee and never critted an entire fight and another 10 hits in a row?
    I have mods that are 100 sig and others that are 50 sig it's rng

    again, this is not relevant or the same thing.

    The probability of a dupe is high, the probability of the same dupe 13 times in a row is not high.

    The calculated chance is actually 0.000001. This is what Manthro is talking about. Please read the OP's post carefully and focus on his topic.

  • ManthroManthro Posts: 2,752
    Mustangjon wrote: »
    Terminal wrote: »
    how is the chance of a 3* relevant to getting the exact same item 13 times in a row?

    How many mods are there maybe 7-8 so probability of a dupe is high it's called rng
    ever fought with arcee and never critted an entire fight and another 10 hits in a row?
    I have mods that are 100 sig and others that are 50 sig it's rng

    Rng or not, pulling the exact same mod 13 times in a row is odd. I have all the 2* mods, I expect dupes, obviously...

    Have you ever in the history of rolling a single 6 sided die, ever rolled the same number 13 times in a row? MmmHmmm... Thought so. Guess what, that has a more likely probability than rolling a 2* harm accelerator 13 times in a row.

    Might want to actually read what's being posted before making yourself look ignorant and foolish.
  • ZapperZapper Posts: 186
    So you are not getting anything from one of the "premium" crystals? No, believe me that's working as intended and 100% not broken.
  • ManthroManthro Posts: 2,752
    Zapper wrote: »
    So you are not getting anything from one of the "premium" crystals? No, believe me that's working as intended and 100% not broken.

    What are you talking about? Stop cluttering this thread with useless posts and take Mustangjon with you.
  • Stitch626Stitch626 Posts: 286
    Manthro wrote: »
    Zapper wrote: »
    So you are not getting anything from one of the "premium" crystals? No, believe me that's working as intended and 100% not broken.

    What are you talking about? Stop cluttering this thread with useless posts and take Mustangjon with you.

    He is suggesting that you not getting anything better than a 2* mod you have already received is nothing unusual, and that in general, 99% of the time, you will essentially get crap from the Premium Mod Crystals.

    If more than you was experiencing this same issue, then I would agree that it would seem broken. But clearly there are many many players who are not experiencing the same thing you are, as there are no other threads like this on these forums anywhere. Thats not to say I dont feel what your saying, or that I dont believe you - im just saying, its most likely not broken, and youre fact just running into a streak of getting the same things over and over again. To put it another way, if I roll a dice 10x and each time I roll it it lands on 5 - does that mean the dice is broken?

    Odd are odds. Just because you opened up 1 crystal and got 'X' item, does not mean that you are any more, or less likely to receive that same item the next time either. And given that the variety of mods in this game is less than what you can count on 2 hands, I would say the odds of you getting the same items over and over again is actually pretty high.

    Frustrating for sure to get the same things over and over again - but more liekly than not, its 'working as intended'.
  • Stitch626Stitch626 Posts: 286
    If I might make a suggestion, instead of opening up the crystal right away when you get one, try saving them up for a bit until you get like 5 or so. I find that opening up crystals in bunches like that makes it more likely that you will receive different stuff. Does doing it that way REALLY make a difference? Probably not - but for someone who has been playing this game since release, and has played MCOC for nearly a year (they have this exact same type of crystal system), opening up crystals in bunches like that always feels like you have a better chance of getting something you dont already have instead of duping the same item over and over and over again, like whats happening to you.
  • ManthroManthro Posts: 2,752
    Interesting that no one except Terminal seems to understand the infinitesimal probability of rolling the identical item that many times in a row.

    You as a player should not look at it as "likely"... It's actually extremely unlikely, nearing the point of being impossible.

    Can it happen? Sure. But when I experience something like that I want to bring it to dev and player attention just in case there is an issue with the rng.

    That's it that's all.
  • MustangjonMustangjon Posts: 1,146
    Or everyone can continue and be "cool" and just flag everyone they don't agree with and since it's not likely but mathematically possible still we all need to raise pitchforks and torches and claim it's rigged *sarcasm off* so go ahead add more flags to my account what will I ever do.
  • ZapperZapper Posts: 186
    Manthro wrote: »
    Interesting that no one except Terminal seems to understand the infinitesimal probability of rolling the identical item that many times in a row.

    You as a player should not look at it as "likely"... It's actually extremely unlikely, nearing the point of being impossible.

    Can it happen? Sure. But when I experience something like that I want to bring it to dev and player attention just in case there is an issue with the rng.

    That's it that's all.

    Unlikely but not impossible is the key here.
  • CandKaneCandKane Posts: 718
    The odds of this happening are roughly 1/10^13. That means one out of ten trillion, and it's actually a little worse since I'm only counting 2 star mods in that. Possible, but so unlikely that I doubt anyone else will ever experience this again if we all played for the next millenium.
  • Stitch626Stitch626 Posts: 286
    edited May 2017
    Manthro wrote: »
    Interesting that no one except Terminal seems to understand the infinitesimal probability of rolling the identical item that many times in a row.

    You as a player should not look at it as "likely"... It's actually extremely unlikely, nearing the point of being impossible.

    Can it happen? Sure. But when I experience something like that I want to bring it to dev and player attention just in case there is an issue with the rng.

    That's it that's all.

    As stated before, the issue isnt that people dont believe you or understand what you are saying - its that literally no one else is experiencing the same thing you are...or if they are, they have not made any posts about it. So its hard for people to think or agree that something is, or might be "broken", like you suggested when no one else is experiencing the same thing.

    Frustrating? Yes, I imagine it would be. But is it "broken"? I have seen nothing to suggest that it is not working as intended. Again, I would suggest you might try opening several crystals up at once and seeing what happens. If you open up 5 Mod crystals at the same time and each one comes out as a 2* Harm Accelerator dupe...then maybe take a screenshot of that and post it on here, or send an email to Kabam...as then you might be closer to proving that something is broken or might not be working as intended for you for some reason.
  • XannenXannen Posts: 17
    Stitch626 wrote: »
    If you open up 5 Mod crystals at the same time and each one comes out as a 2* Harm Accelerator dupe...then maybe take a screenshot of that and post it on here, or send an email to Kabam...as then you might be closer to proving that something is broken or might not be working as intended for you for some reason.

    So opening five at once and getting all the same item, that would be potential evidence of an issue to you, but opening them one at a time to get 13 in a row isn't?

    That's some interesting logic you have there.
    If it's to be believed that opening in a batch is the same as opening one at a time what difference does it make?
  • Stitch626Stitch626 Posts: 286
    edited May 2017
    Xannen wrote: »
    Stitch626 wrote: »
    If you open up 5 Mod crystals at the same time and each one comes out as a 2* Harm Accelerator dupe...then maybe take a screenshot of that and post it on here, or send an email to Kabam...as then you might be closer to proving that something is broken or might not be working as intended for you for some reason.

    So opening five at once and getting all the same item, that would be potential evidence of an issue to you, but opening them one at a time to get 13 in a row isn't?

    That's some interesting logic you have there.
    If it's to be believed that opening in a batch is the same as opening one at a time what difference does it make?

    Im saying that opening 5 at once and them all being the same thing, and taking a screenshot of such a thing, is a much easier, and stronger, a thing to show, than just you saying "Ive opened up 13 crystals and they have all been the same".

    Ive been playing the game since launch and have opened up dozens of those mod crystals and never run into a streak like yours. So, by that logic, does that mean there isnt any issue? No - but it means that the issue you are experiencing might be a "just you" issue, in which case, you would need to prove the issue. Just saying "there is an issue" hardly ever works in these games...you need to show that the issue exists. Taking a screenshot of opening up a stack of crystals and them all being the exact same thing, would be a great first step in showing that its a real and demonstrable issue you are having.

    Statistically, regardless if you open up a single crystal or 20 at once, the odds for each crystal should be exactly the same. So, if there is a real issue, you opening up 5 crystals at once will undoubtedly show there is an issue as you now would have not only posted a thread where you are saying you are experiencing an issue, but then can also accompany that with an example after the fact that shows the issue is real and ongoing.
  • rawrrawr Posts: 20
    i have yet to pull a 2* harm accelerator from a premium mod crystal... opened ~120 to date since beta.. what are the odds of that then?

    if u get the actual stats from the entire server, i think youd find that its pretty even among all the 2* mods from pmc
    and you would get a split between 2* 3* and 4* as well

    i got my harm acclerator mod from a standard mod crystal (1* and2* only)
  • ManthroManthro Posts: 2,752
    edited May 2017
    Xannen wrote: »
    Stitch626 wrote: »
    If you open up 5 Mod crystals at the same time and each one comes out as a 2* Harm Accelerator dupe...then maybe take a screenshot of that and post it on here, or send an email to Kabam...as then you might be closer to proving that something is broken or might not be working as intended for you for some reason.

    So opening five at once and getting all the same item, that would be potential evidence of an issue to you, but opening them one at a time to get 13 in a row isn't?

    That's some interesting logic you have there.
    If it's to be believed that opening in a batch is the same as opening one at a time what difference does it make?

    Hold on now... He actually does make a point even though he doesn't fully understand it, and I hadn't thought about it that way.

    If you consider that the entire player base is rolling against the rng as one entity, then opening in a batch could potentially solve the problem.

    Think of it this way:

    I have 10 crystals to open, that I choose to open one at a time.

    In between each roll, there could be a hundred other players all rolling their own crystal. So when I open my next one, I roll the exact same item and it feels like the rng is broken. It would in fact not be, because the hundred rolls in between most likely didn't all roll the same thing. It just looks that way to the individual.

    But, if I request a batch of crystals to be opened simultaneously, I won't have all those other players soaking up the different pulls between each crystal.

    Interesting way of looking at it, I may try it to see if it changes outcomes.
  • TerminalTerminal Posts: 789
    I see a lot of people here talking about 'likely' 'unlikely' etc and not really understanding probability. These things can be calculated. Use a binomial calculator. There's a lot of off topic stuff here.

    The issue that was raised is the chance of getting the same result X times in a row. We're not talking about getting dupes in general (which a lot of people are saying). The issue is in getting the same dupe multiple times in a row.

    Also, people saying RNG is RNG... It's actually psuedo-rng. Things like poker machines also have psuedo-rng systems and theirs have to be independently audited and there is specific criteria they need to pass to be legal. There's more than one way to create software RNG algorithms, background cycling and RNG seeding.. and it really doesn't take long to notice that mobile game RNG systems aren't particularly good compared to their 'big brothers'.
  • Hey guys,

    Just wanted to pop in here and remind everyone to stay on topic and no call each other out. Let's keep the forums a positive place for everyone! Discussions and debates are totally ok as long as they stay respectful and on the OP's topic! Calling people out and arguing is against our forum rules.

    Thanks all!
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