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Version 5.2 Discussion Thread

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  • xxerexxxxerexx Posts: 96
    Rework wrote: »
    But it won't take months to figure it out. I will pull at least 50 shard PBCs as soon as the next month's bot chips are available. That will be a large enough sample to tell with reasonable confidence the difference between the historical low single digit drop rate for 3* bots and the advertised rate.

    Out of 50 pbcs it's a 99.5% probability to pull 6 3* based on the advertised rates. (39.5% for a 4*)
  • I have such bad timing... The update just showed up for me on the App store. This doesn't mean that it is out to everybody, but now is a good time to go and check to see if it's available to you now.
  • Nick_80Nick_80 Posts: 225
    Just got the update a few minutes ago.
  • ManthroManthro Posts: 2,752
    edited March 2018
    xxerexx wrote: »
    Rework wrote: »
    But it won't take months to figure it out. I will pull at least 50 shard PBCs as soon as the next month's bot chips are available. That will be a large enough sample to tell with reasonable confidence the difference between the historical low single digit drop rate for 3* bots and the advertised rate.

    Out of 50 pbcs it's a 99.5% probability to pull 6 3* based on the advertised rates. (39.5% for a 4*)

    Well, it didn't take long for the first ridiculous statement to come out...

    Where does a 1% chance per spin for a 4* translate into 39.5% odds to draw one out of 50 spins?

    You are assuming you are spinning crystals against a finite number of possible prizes. There aren't only 100 prizes sitting on the other end of the transaction, with the probability increasing as you draw each undesired prize.

    You are drawing against an infinite number of prizes that get refreshed every time you make a transaction.

    1% is 1%. Each and every time you open a crystal.
  • DonApisDonApis Posts: 544
    Beside the fact I don't like the new design of the Heath bar (who cares?) It is too thick and overlapping the mods debuffs

    1lczrz0qsxba.jpg

    I agree with you. The new design look weird for me.
  • Darm0kDarm0k Posts: 2,485
    Synthwave wrote: »
    Beside the fact I don't like the new design of the Heath bar (who cares?) It is too thick and overlapping the mods debuffs

    1lczrz0qsxba.jpg

    I like the new look of the health bar, but I wouldn't mind them lengthening the bar by about 20-25%. Looks much shorter now somehow.

    Yeah, having it a little longer would be nice.
  • KillMasterCKillMasterC Posts: 3,105
    26% chance of a 3* in PBC is equal to get a 4 from a 4-faced dice. I don't know but even with a 6-faced dice I can get a 6 in 10 throws (because I often play Aeroplane Chess with kids where you can't get a plane out of your base unless you have a 6).
    With 20 PBC's, however, I'm not even counting on getting a 3*.
    I know how RNG works but... this is really not like a dice.
  • Darm0kDarm0k Posts: 2,485
    I like the posted rates for gold crystals. 100% chance to get gold.
  • ManthroManthro Posts: 2,752
    Darm0k wrote: »
    I like the posted rates for gold crystals. 100% chance to get gold.

    They have to post it because they can be purchased for real money
  • Darm0kDarm0k Posts: 2,485
    Manthro wrote: »
    Darm0k wrote: »
    I like the posted rates for gold crystals. 100% chance to get gold.

    They have to post it because they can be purchased for real money

    I know. I was just making a joke of it. I guess, if anything, it would’ve been great to see a break down by amount such as 1000-2000 75%, 2001-3000 20%, etc.

    On another note, doing a few more battles, the health bar seems harder to read for me. Maybe it’s just a matter of getting used to it or something...
  • Username819273943Username819273943 Posts: 85
    edited March 2018
    Manthro wrote: »
    Rework wrote: »
    I have to challenge the accuracy of the drop rates shown on the Shards tab Premium Bot Crystals.
    It shows the same drop rates as the full crystals on the 1st tab and I think all of us have enough experience to know that is not even close to true.
    If the designers intended them to be the same, perhaps the programmers should check to see if a decimal point was misplaced in the actual drop rate for Shard PBCs.

    It's entirely possible that the team adjusted drop rates once they had to divulge the information. I agree drop rates probably weren't this high for top tier rarity items before v5.2.

    But, what you have to realize is, it doesn't matter what the drop rates were before the update.

    What they say they are now is what they are currently.... So any data you compiled or perception you had about drop rates before version 5.2 is irrelevant.

    Give it a chance, complain after a couple months if you still feel they aren't accurate.

    I had some input on this long time ago, its pointless to release these loot box info without a third party tool to audit the actual rates at given periods. Apple played everyone by not including an audit process, and apps owners played along.
  • AlcethAlceth Posts: 14
    Published or not, Kabam can still do whatever they want if it's indeed not audited.

    I've kept screenshots of 30+ series of PBC openings: not even one 3*...
    On the other hand I have a proof of sbdy getting 4 x 4* out of last 30 crystal bundle...
    These kind of discrepancies provide a lot of frustration and incomprehension to players.

    A much more balanced way to do it, would be to have a personal historical drop rate instead of reset on every opening.
    Anybody reaching 200 crystal openings would have the same chance to opening 2 4* at some point.

    Thoughts?
  • ReworkRework Posts: 122
    Manthro wrote: »
    xxerexx wrote: »
    Rework wrote: »
    But it won't take months to figure it out. I will pull at least 50 shard PBCs as soon as the next month's bot chips are available. That will be a large enough sample to tell with reasonable confidence the difference between the historical low single digit drop rate for 3* bots and the advertised rate.

    Out of 50 pbcs it's a 99.5% probability to pull 6 3* based on the advertised rates. (39.5% for a 4*)

    Well, it didn't take long for the first ridiculous statement to come out...

    Where does a 1% chance per spin for a 4* translate into 39.5% odds to draw one out of 50 spins?

    You are assuming you are spinning crystals against a finite number of possible prizes. There aren't only 100 prizes sitting on the other end of the transaction, with the probability increasing as you draw each undesired prize.

    You are drawing against an infinite number of prizes that get refreshed every time you make a transaction.

    1% is 1%. Each and every time you open a crystal.

    Mantho, you really don't know what you are talking about. You should take at least a basic statistics course before going off on the subject, otherwise you just demonstrate your ignorance.

    I'm not going to dig out my old college text to check xxerexx's work, but it looks pretty accurate to me, and I have studied the subject.

    Taken as a whole, pulling 50 crystals at 1% chance each yields a much higher than 1% total chance to pull at least one 4*.
  • DirculesDircules Posts: 509
    At 1% for a 4* it’s 99% chance of not getting one.

    Chances of hitting 99% over 50 pulls is 0.99^50 = 0.60500. Or 60.5%. So 39.5% of hitting a 4* in 50 crystals.

    300 crystals has about 95% chance of 4*. It’s never guaranteed, of course. At 1000 crystals there is still a 0.005% chance of not getting a 4*. About 1 player in 200 will not get a 4* in 1000 crystals. On a playerbase of 50k that’s still 250 unlucky sods. Maybe that’s the few people who are active on the forums ;)
  • Aw the Poisson vs Uniform probability debate.
    My popcorn is ready
  • Rework wrote: »
    Manthro wrote: »
    xxerexx wrote: »
    Rework wrote: »
    But it won't take months to figure it out. I will pull at least 50 shard PBCs as soon as the next month's bot chips are available. That will be a large enough sample to tell with reasonable confidence the difference between the historical low single digit drop rate for 3* bots and the advertised rate.

    Out of 50 pbcs it's a 99.5% probability to pull 6 3* based on the advertised rates. (39.5% for a 4*)

    Well, it didn't take long for the first ridiculous statement to come out...

    Where does a 1% chance per spin for a 4* translate into 39.5% odds to draw one out of 50 spins?

    You are assuming you are spinning crystals against a finite number of possible prizes. There aren't only 100 prizes sitting on the other end of the transaction, with the probability increasing as you draw each undesired prize.

    You are drawing against an infinite number of prizes that get refreshed every time you make a transaction.

    1% is 1%. Each and every time you open a crystal.

    Mantho, you really don't know what you are talking about. You should take at least a basic statistics course before going off on the subject, otherwise you just demonstrate your ignorance.

    I'm not going to dig out my old college text to check xxerexx's work, but it looks pretty accurate to me, and I have studied the subject.

    Taken as a whole, pulling 50 crystals at 1% chance each yields a much higher than 1% total chance to pull at least one 4*.

    I cheated and Googled it. The official kabam analogy of 10 coin flips all landing the same is a perfect example of how wrong everything is. The odds of 10 (50/50) flips ALL landing the same are 0.0976%. How many of us have killed bots with ramjet's heavies without his sig triggering? Ever been fighting with prime at less than 15% health? His synergy with ratchet sure defies the laws of probability.

    Draw a card from a deck of cards, you have the same odds of pulling a diamond as you do a 3* from a pic. Wanna bet which is truly random?

    Like has already been said, odds posted without an independent audit of the code are worthless.
  • DaveJLDaveJL Posts: 1,779
    seems like Primals sticky feet were fixed and now he is back to how he was for some reason...
  • Frugalli88Frugalli88 Posts: 148
    Thanks for fixing MV1 synergy with IH. Been getting consistent double bleeds from the specials now. Still haven’t fixed the heating up issues. 1 fight in AM gets my phone so hot that the next one starts to lag. Baby steps I guess...
  • Yeah, I prefer the old design of the health bar, but I don't mind the new design. However, I would like it if the length of the new health bar was the same as the length of the old one.
  • Darm0kDarm0k Posts: 2,485
    26% chance of a 3* in PBC is equal to get a 4 from a 4-faced dice. I don't know but even with a 6-faced dice I can get a 6 in 10 throws (because I often play Aeroplane Chess with kids where you can't get a plane out of your base unless you have a 6).
    With 20 PBC's, however, I'm not even counting on getting a 3*.
    I know how RNG works but... this is really not like a dice.

    I think you have to visualize it as rolling a 100 sided dice with only one of the faces being a 4 star bot. I’m fairly positive I could roll that thing 100 times and not hit that one 4 star side once. Then again, I also have bad luck.
  • JatinderSinghJatinderSingh Posts: 284
    edited March 2018
    Best update so far
    1) better graphics adjustment
    2) smoother gameplay
    3) all sp-3 are so clean and clearly visible ;) now i can finally see what STARSCREAM used to do on sp-3 .
    4) The new Health bar looks great
    5) Also the whole game itselfs loads faster .
    6) This update 5.2 took the lowest time to download fully then ever before.
    7.) raid stores are doing great job every day now . I have interest towards raids now
    8) AM environment was great paths were more visible now .

    In short thanks @Kabam Miike
    Best update ever .I m sure crashes and lags reports will be almost to zero now.
  • Anyone who knows was primal heavy fixed? When Primal heavy attacks causes bleed from rhinox on shields !!
  • KillMasterCKillMasterC Posts: 3,105
    NOW the drop rate disappears....
  • JOUSTJOUST Posts: 57
    The previous design of the health bar was consistent with the current design of the special bars. The latest health bar design is ugly, unless you change the design of the special bars to match it. The previous HP bar design is minimalist & perfect.
  • I have a problem
    Can u help?
  • Bntyhntr3232_Bntyhntr3232_ Posts: 3,088
    Gunz0 wrote: »
    It's too boring for me, I want MOAR content and big changes

    So do i
  • Only a few more days until we hear about Kickback!
  • Mufc14Mufc14 Posts: 643
    I noticed after this update that the bot don’t respond to my commands or take a move without my commands.
    Sometimes it is blocking while I am attacking or not touching the screen.
    Sometimes stop completely while I am hitting a combo, sp or blocking.
    This may happen once in the fight ( in any game mod ) & more than once during long fights like mega at am.
    Happened to other teammates in my alliance.
    Using iPhone 6 iOS 11.2.1 & iPad mini 3 iOS 9.3.3.

  • Mufc14 wrote: »
    I noticed after this update that the bot don’t respond to my commands or take a move without my commands.

    I’m not experiencing doing commands without my input but I am experiencing somewhat sluggish responses to input now, there’s a noticeable delay and it’s pretty offputting. I’m on an iphone 8 plus on 11.0.3.
  • Try reinstalling the game. I had the same issue and doing that corrected it.
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