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Me thinks the RNG with random T3C spark crystals is not so random

So the sample set is admittedly small, with about 20-30 players reporting the same phenomenon occurring, but it's still something worth reporting.

Everyone is consistently and sequentially pulling T3C sparks from the same class. Like, A LOT.

Out of all 26 random T3C crystals I've personally opened, 12 of them have been scout sparks. TWELVE. That's nearly a 50% chance that every spark I open will be a scout.

Now take a look at which 5 star bot class I've been missing.

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Since that moment I acquired 5 of the 6 classes I have pulled 5 of my 12 total scout sparks from 10 "random" crystal pulls. Again. 50% of my sparks at that moment were all Scout.


I know you're just gonna say it's all random, but after getting that many Scout sparks in a row and after I pulled every other 5 star class bot except Scout I just can't help but think something is up.

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Comments

  • Stitch626Stitch626 Posts: 286
    Ok - real talk. What do you REALLY believe "is up"?

    Are you suggesting that Kabam has a secret code written into its algorithm that says "Check players 4-5* bot collection...after which, if there is a particular class of bot that is less common in the player's current pool, when opening up T3 crystals, increase the chances of receiving least class needed."

    Do you think that this only applies to T3 crystals? Or also the T2 chrystals as well for people who are wanting to upgrade their 4*s? How about mods...does this secret code apply to mods as well?

    Do you think there are any other secret algorithms that Kabam has hidden in its code that say things like "Check players current bot pool - if missing a particular bot, decrease chances of receiving that bot from any crystal", or how a code that says "When generating AM maps, look at what players have taken certain paths before in the past, and when generating the random Sharks in the lanes, increase the odds of which Sharks with a class advantage over your bots are generated"?

    These types of conspiracies have been around in this game since it launched, and honestly, they are the exact same types of conspiracies that are in EVERY game where there is "luck" involved with receiving upgrades and such.

    Odds are odds. And in this case we are talking about some pretty simple odds....1 in 6. Thats like a 16% chance each time that you are going to get any given T3 spark. And while opening up 26 T3 crystals is impressive (I think ive opened up a grand total of like 4 or 5), that pool size is NOTHING. That would be like me saying I bought 10,000 lottery tickets and won nothing but a couple of dollars....so the lottery must be fixed in some way.
  • TKOTKO Posts: 246
    Stitch626 wrote: »
    Ok - real talk. What do you REALLY believe "is up"?

    Are you suggesting that Kabam has a secret code written into its algorithm that says "Check players 4-5* bot collection...after which, if there is a particular class of bot that is less common in the player's current pool, when opening up T3 crystals, increase the chances of receiving least class needed."

    Do you think that this only applies to T3 crystals? Or also the T2 chrystals as well for people who are wanting to upgrade their 4*s? How about mods...does this secret code apply to mods as well?

    Do you think there are any other secret algorithms that Kabam has hidden in its code that say things like "Check players current bot pool - if missing a particular bot, decrease chances of receiving that bot from any crystal", or how a code that says "When generating AM maps, look at what players have taken certain paths before in the past, and when generating the random Sharks in the lanes, increase the odds of which Sharks with a class advantage over your bots are generated"?

    These types of conspiracies have been around in this game since it launched, and honestly, they are the exact same types of conspiracies that are in EVERY game where there is "luck" involved with receiving upgrades and such.

    Odds are odds. And in this case we are talking about some pretty simple odds....1 in 6. Thats like a 16% chance each time that you are going to get any given T3 spark. And while opening up 26 T3 crystals is impressive (I think ive opened up a grand total of like 4 or 5), that pool size is NOTHING. That would be like me saying I bought 10,000 lottery tickets and won nothing but a couple of dollars....so the lottery must be fixed in some way.

    I am 100% with the OP. I have noticed this with all the crystal pulls and seen a pattern where most of my pulls would be the exact opposite from what I was looking for.

    So either Kabam can read my mind while I'm about to open a crystal and they know which sparks I'm looking for or bot/class I'm looking for and I don't get it. Or they have some really complicated algorithms that check global pulls against your pulls and what you "need" and base chances off of that.
  • BOFADBOFAD Posts: 481
    edited June 2018
    Im just worried about what I’m going to do when I hit 13 tech T3Cs. I am at 8 now (10 total) 5 more to go lol
  • TotherkinsTotherkins Posts: 299
    I've pulled a lot of demo t3c 5 out of 9. Hopefully I get a demo 5 star though! Still a long way to go until I'm at 13 so I'll just hoard them.
  • TotherkinsTotherkins Posts: 299
    And one of those I was able to choose, lol. I went with tech.
  • Stitch626Stitch626 Posts: 286
    TKO wrote: »

    So either Kabam can read my mind while I'm about to open a crystal and they know which sparks I'm looking for or bot/class I'm looking for and I don't get it. Or they have some really complicated algorithms that check global pulls against your pulls and what you "need" and base chances off of that.

    Or, there isnt any mind reading or "secret algorithms", and its all chance, and you've just had bad luck when it comes to those things.

    Sometimes the simple answer is the most logical.
  • Faithz17Faithz17 Posts: 842
    I will be thankful for the RNG that has helped me get T3Cs that I wanted. I have pulled 1 demo, 2 tact, 3 brawler, 3 warrior, 4 scout, 1 tech. I am hoping for 2 warriors and 1 tech this month. Keeping my fingers crossed. I close my eyes, make a wish and press open (I never spin). Voila! Open my eyes and see the Spark I want.
  • SkBirdmanSkBirdman Posts: 391
    My last 4 t3c have all been Demo. Odds of that happening are 1/1296.
  • TotherkinsTotherkins Posts: 299
    SkBirdman wrote: »
    My last 4 t3c have all been Demo. Odds of that happening are 1/1296.

    So you're saying there's a chance?
  • Stitch626Stitch626 Posts: 286
    SkBirdman wrote: »
    My last 4 t3c have all been Demo. Odds of that happening are 1/1296.

    I mean, you can look at it that way I suppose. But at the end of the day, when you open a single crystal, your odds of getting any particular class spark is still 1/6.

    I feel like a lot more people need to play Yahtzee to understand how odds work....
  • SkBirdmanSkBirdman Posts: 391
    Stitch626 wrote: »
    SkBirdman wrote: »
    My last 4 t3c have all been Demo. Odds of that happening are 1/1296.

    I mean, you can look at it that way I suppose. But at the end of the day, when you open a single crystal, your odds of getting any particular class spark is still 1/6.

    I feel like a lot more people need to play Yahtzee to understand how odds work....

    You do realise that computer systems arent actually true random, theyre pseudo random? So if your starting seed is the same you will ALWAYS get the same sequence of events. So yes, you can break a "random" system in a computer.
  • I know you guys wrote a lot here, and I feel bad not writing nearly as much.... But....

    It is completely random. We don't take into account which Bots, Mods, Sparks, progress, etc. that you have made when you get these rewards. Remember, Just because you had a 1 in 6 chance of getting a Scout T3C this time doesn't mean that you have any more or less chance of getting a Scout T3C next time.

    It is 100% Random.
  • BOFADBOFAD Posts: 481
    edited June 2018
    I wonder if our chances may bemore favorable based on timing. For instance most of the top 3 alliances get T3C at the same time nowadays so we if all pop then right away odds might be skewed a little bit
  • massimo51massimo51 Posts: 88
    If only there was some type of gaming committee/agency that audited game algorithms to certify the “randomness” we are sold on.

    It’s not like it would be difficult to factor in a reduction in chance of desired spark based on bot inventory into the formula. Just as easy as the illusion of showing us back to back 4* on the wheel of fortune for a premium bot crystal that would in fact equal a higher ratio than we are being informed of, and then landing on the only 2* as it slows to a stop.

    It is easy to deny when it cant really be authenticated.
  • We need an active sub-reddit for this game so these "theories" can be openly discussed, official forum is not the place.
  • SynthwaveSynthwave Posts: 1,012
    It's still very much in its infancy, but I think concepts like blockchain technology will be the future of guaranteeing fairness in mobile platform gaming (and other areas of life as well).

    I know there's companies out there now (like FunFair) that are already implementing it into online gambling apps, but I could easily see something that's 100% verifiable on the player-end becoming the new standard for both Google and Apple. Publishing drop rates is a great start, but if the industry is really, truly interested in showing that they're operating a fair and honest business across the board, blockchain tech (or whatever the final product ends up being) will be the way to achieve it.
  • I need tactician, brawler and demo but for the first 4 T3 class spark, I got warrior, Scout and Tech. Yeah, it is not random
  • Faithz17Faithz17 Posts: 842
    I got my T3C tech... now hoping for warriors and demo T3C :smiley:
  • LaprasLapras Posts: 258
    Despite what some of you may think, I really don’t think Kabaam would come on here and flat out lie to us. If they say it is random I believe them.

    If they wanted to get in the business of conning people I am sure they could find ways to make a lot more money then by designing a transformers game.

    Don’t get me wrong, some of the pulls people have talked about here would cause me a lot of frustration. Instead of accusing kabaam of cheating and lieing let’s have a discussion about giving us more control over our T3 pulls. For example, master spotlight could award a T3 of our choice as opposed to being random.
  • NightgauntNightgaunt Posts: 178
    massimo51 wrote: »
    If only there was some type of gaming committee/agency that audited game algorithms to certify the “randomness” we are sold on.

    The idea of being able to 'certify' randomness is nebulous at best. If you flip a coin 1000 times and get heads 1000 times, is that not random? There's a 50/50 chance every time, and the previous result has no influence whatsoever on the next, so 1000 heads is as likely an outcome as anything else. This is where some people make the mistake of thinking they can look for a pattern in things like lottery numbers. A lot of people would think if someone has 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 as their lottery numbers, they'd be an idiot, but it's as likely an outcome as 5, 17, 21, 25, 31, 43, etc. As pattern recognition machines, humans are uniquely challenged by having to NOT see the pattern in random values.
  • Username619272981Username619272981 Posts: 138
    edited June 2018
    Nightgaunt wrote: »
    massimo51 wrote: »
    If only there was some type of gaming committee/agency that audited game algorithms to certify the “randomness” we are sold on.

    The idea of being able to 'certify' randomness is nebulous at best. If you flip a coin 1000 times and get heads 1000 times, is that not random? There's a 50/50 chance every time, and the previous result has no influence whatsoever on the next, so 1000 heads is as likely an outcome as anything else. This is where some people make the mistake of thinking they can look for a pattern in things like lottery numbers. A lot of people would think if someone has 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 as their lottery numbers, they'd be an idiot, but it's as likely an outcome as 5, 17, 21, 25, 31, 43, etc. As pattern recognition machines, humans are uniquely challenged by having to NOT see the pattern in random values.

    I think he meant to audit/certify the coding of random generation.
    Not to audit/certify the outcome of random generation.

    i.e. Examine the coin to make sure it is not both side heads before flipping.
  • WarCatWarCat Posts: 171
    Kabam can’t fix the memory leak, or the random glitches since the day the game dropped. They have yet to correct the fight inputs for the iPhone X, a phone that’s been out for over 6 months.
    Yet the OP and several others think that Kabam has a troll program that looks at what they have, and gives them what they don’t need.
    Humm... I think the delousional train was arrived on track 13.
  • SynthwaveSynthwave Posts: 1,012
    WarCat wrote: »
    Kabam can’t fix the memory leak, or the random glitches since the day the game dropped. They have yet to correct the fight inputs for the iPhone X, a phone that’s been out for over 6 months.
    Yet the OP and several others think that Kabam has a troll program that looks at what they have, and gives them what they don’t need.
    Humm... I think the delousional train was arrived on track 13.

    lol, your whole post is operating purely under the assumption that Kabam has the customer as the #1 priority above making money. The reality here is that if the memory leaks and random glitches were affecting the bottom line, they'd put that as item #1 on the laundry list of things to fix, but guess what, it ain't affecting the bottom line.

    Yet I'm the delusional one for suggesting that a for-profit business would utilize something that would help them make more profit by luring customers towards one of their deals that allows them to get what they really want because Kabam's "random" offers aren't giving it to them.

    I never once said that "this is exactly what Kabam is doing!!1!" but merely stated that something looks wrong about this, stat-wise. Do companies pull shenanigans like this all the time to make money? Absolutely. Companies and corporations have even been caught red-handed doing it. So no, I don't think my statements make me delusional. If anything, you should be questioning your whole "all for-profit companies put customers first" as the underpinning for your initial argument that the memory leaks and glitches continue to go unpatched.
  • DaveJLDaveJL Posts: 1,779
    Well in MCoC, I'm sure at the start they said your pulls were based on a number of factors, insinuating that it wasn't as straight forward as a completely random chance. I dunno, it could be weighted. I'm not sure I believe it's a completely fair and even chance - you sometimes see it from crystal pulls in the alliance tab, people opening a lot of the same thing at the same time
  • WarCatWarCat Posts: 171
    Never in my post did I say that corporations put the customer first and that their motives are clean and pure. I just called into question the reasoning that Kabam is capable of programming a snooping program that takes into account what your bots are, what level they are at, and determining which bot class you don't need a T3C of. If they can't fix the memory leak after a year then I am highly doubtful they could get that snooping program to even come close to working.

    However, my persona take on your rant is this: You think Kabam Mike is a liar and the game is totally geared to screw the whales like yourself. Did I misunderstand that?
  • SynthwaveSynthwave Posts: 1,012
    WarCat wrote: »
    Never in my post did I say that corporations put the customer first and that their motives are clean and pure. I just called into question the reasoning that Kabam is capable of programming a snooping program that takes into account what your bots are, what level they are at, and determining which bot class you don't need a T3C of. If they can't fix the memory leak after a year then I am highly doubtful they could get that snooping program to even come close to working.

    However, my persona take on your rant is this: You think Kabam Mike is a liar and the game is totally geared to screw the whales like yourself. Did I misunderstand that?

    1. Rant is a bit of an embellishment. Rants have exclamation points.
    2. Kabam programmed a game of the year, what makes you think they can't program something that examines player inventory, lol?
    3. It's their game, it's not snooping.
    4. You misunderstood and embellished pretty much everything. Nowhere did I call Mike a liar and nowhere did I say I was a whale. (Though if you dig hard enough through the forum there's one time where Mike technically told a lie when he said that he didn't think 5 star bots would ever be released in the game. Though I guess that could fall under plausible deniability.)

    If you go back and read my initial post though you won't find an ounce of "GOTCHA, MIKE, YOU WHALE-MILKING LIAR!!!" in it. Merely that it seems to me that "something is up" which was left intentionally nebulous. I tried to be as courteous as possible while leaving something open to be discussed, which is more than can be said for your post which immediately stooped to name-calling and an abundance of generic fallacies.
  • TotherkinsTotherkins Posts: 299
    Stitch626 wrote: »
    SkBirdman wrote: »
    My last 4 t3c have all been Demo. Odds of that happening are 1/1296.

    I mean, you can look at it that way I suppose. But at the end of the day, when you open a single crystal, your odds of getting any particular class spark is still 1/6.

    I feel like a lot more people need to play Yahtzee to understand how odds work....

    This is the best comment ever. Play yahtzee and getting x amount in a row is a win and happens frequently. Pretty much like this game, I'm fine with pulling demos. Just pulled a 5 star meg rotc, and for the most part until you hit 13 you don't really have anything to worry about imo.
  • DaveJLDaveJL Posts: 1,779
    Totherkins wrote: »
    Stitch626 wrote: »
    SkBirdman wrote: »
    My last 4 t3c have all been Demo. Odds of that happening are 1/1296.

    I mean, you can look at it that way I suppose. But at the end of the day, when you open a single crystal, your odds of getting any particular class spark is still 1/6.

    I feel like a lot more people need to play Yahtzee to understand how odds work....

    This is the best comment ever. Play yahtzee and getting x amount in a row is a win and happens frequently. Pretty much like this game, I'm fine with pulling demos. Just pulled a 5 star meg rotc, and for the most part until you hit 13 you don't really have anything to worry about imo.

    Pulling the same sparks over and over could hinder massively if you don't have enough bots of that class or any bots of that class.

    The aim of the game is essentially progression or collection, or both. To progress, I think you need a varied roster, so pulling the same spark can certainly hinder progression, which is hard enough even when spending.

    I think the introduction of some sort of pity system or choice (or both) would be for the best. Quick idea, but lets say after you pull 3 of the same class either consecutively or otherwise, you could get a pop up that would allow you to swap for something like either a class of your choice or a crystal that only contains the other 5 classes. This could be free or could cost energon, or could cost more energon for a choice and less energon for the other crystal. Or you could just keep your original pull.

    They could weight the system based on previous pulls, like if you pull demo, 20% less likely to next time, but that seems massively more complex to do than the previous suggestion and isn't ideal for trying to rank up 5* bots
  • Faithz17Faithz17 Posts: 842
    I’m laughing so hard at this. Kabam can’t even fix their bugs, lags, overheating, leaks, control issues and introduces more problems with each update... and you want them to do that?? Might end up with a broken game then :D
  • DaveJLDaveJL Posts: 1,779
    Faithz17 wrote: »
    I’m laughing so hard at this. Kabam can’t even fix their bugs, lags, overheating, leaks, control issues and introduces more problems with each update... and you want them to do that?? Might end up with a broken game then :D

    Why? It's not like they would have to develop an entirely new system - think crystals. You open 10 2* and you get 3* offer. 5 3* and you get 4* offer.
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