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What's the difference between PBC earned and PBC formed from shards

So I just opened 3 PBC's made from shards and received 3 2 stars Rhinox's in a row....come on Kabam. The rates from these shards are so horrible, they are almost the equivalent to daily crystals.
pqney5ejdutp.png

Then the PBC's earned from quests ate like superior crystals. These no ways these drop rates are the same from PBC's (shards,earned and purchased).
Can this be confirmed that they are the same?

This Is from earned PBC's(5)xpdz4atvm9sm.jpg

Comments

  • Im pretty sure the stats on both are the same. Its all luck.

    Ive opened 10 full PBC's all at the same time before and got nothing but 2*'s. Ive also opened up a single PBC I formed with shards and received a 4*.

    So, your experience is nothing unusual or controversial. Its just the game.
  • KittenPrimeKittenPrime Posts: 1,144
    You are correct. The logic behind this is that shard premiums are much easier to come across so they have lower drop rates to balance things out.
  • CandKaneCandKane Posts: 718
    Opened 50-something of each type yesterday, been saving since October for Megatron.
    Keep in mind this is simply my own experience but...
    50 "whole" PBC contained 1 4* (yay dupe Prowl!), 8 3*, and the rest 2*
    50 shard PBC contained 3 3* and the rest 2*
    It's not very scientific, but it seems to me that drop rates do indeed differ slightly.
    Anyone else have numbers?
  • ZangZang Posts: 34
    edited December 2017
    Don’t know if there are different drop rates or not
    For my own experience, the only two 4* I’ve ever dropped come from shards pbc
  • MustangjonMustangjon Posts: 1,146
    50 is nowhere near large enough of pool to even come to conclusion of drop rate nor is 100 or even 1000.

    Many still claim the full crystals have better luck but well some people believe 4 leaf clovers bring luck as well as never washing their game clothes etc
  • Joker69Joker69 Posts: 345
    The shard pbc's should be renamed 2* crystals
  • CandKaneCandKane Posts: 718
    edited December 2017
    @Mustangjon thank you for that oh so constructive remark.
    The shard vs whole PBC discrepency has been noted a few times now, and yes I know my sample size is a bit small but no need to resort to name-calling.
  • MustangjonMustangjon Posts: 1,146
    edited December 2017
    Removed afraid care bear police would get called
  • Stitch626 wrote: »
    Im pretty sure the stats on both are the same. Its all luck.

    Ive opened 10 full PBC's all at the same time before and got nothing but 2*'s. Ive also opened up a single PBC I formed with shards and received a 4*.

    So, your experience is nothing unusual or controversial. Its just the game.

    So you think 3 of the same 2 stars in row is nothing usual.
  • CandKane wrote: »
    Opened 50-something of each type yesterday, been saving since October for Megatron.
    Keep in mind this is simply my own experience but...
    50 "whole" PBC contained 1 4* (yay dupe Prowl!), 8 3*, and the rest 2*
    50 shard PBC contained 3 3* and the rest 2*
    It's not very scientific, but it seems to me that drop rates do indeed differ slightly.
    Anyone else have numbers?

    Use the central limit theorem with n=50, indicator random variable X set to 1 for non2star and 0 for a 2 star.
    The sample mean for shards is 3/50=0.06. The standard deviation is bounded by sqrt(0.25*(1/50)^2)=0.01.
    The probability that the true mean differs from 0.06 by more than 0.02 is the probability that a normal distribution differs from its mean by 2 standard deviations which is 0.95.
    Based on this sample, you have a 95% confidence interval for the true probability that a shard crystal gives you a non2star is between [0.04, 0.08].
  • CandKaneCandKane Posts: 718
    @MarkovChain thanks for the math, my head's no good with the numbers beyond basics. I'll try to save up and open another 50 of each in late January or roundabout, add some data.
  • TerminalTerminal Posts: 789
    edited December 2017
    inightskies has heaps of videos with crystal openings. He just did 44 pbc shards and got one 3*, one of his old vids he did 50 and got all 2*.

    From my understanding, feature bot crystals have the same rate for 3* etc, but they just have an increased chance of it being the feature. Pbc is like a 'vanilla' feature. So we should be able to count feature openings as equiv to whole pbc.

    If we're including features, that's a lot of extra opening data and the difference is pretty obvious.
  • Use the central limit theorem with n=50, indicator random variable X set to 1 for non2star and 0 for a 2 star.
    The sample mean for shards is 3/50=0.06. The standard deviation is bounded by sqrt(0.25*(1/50)^2)=0.01.
    The probability that the true mean differs from 0.06 by more than 0.02 is the probability that a normal distribution differs from its mean by 2 standard deviations which is 0.95.
    Based on this sample, you have a 95% confidence interval for the true probability that a shard crystal gives you a non2star is between [0.04, 0.08].

    Sorry the bound on the standard deviation is actually sqrt(0.25*(1/50))=0.0707. So the 95% confidence interval is [0, 0.2014] which is pretty wide.
    Repeat the same steps for full crystals and the interval is [0.039, 0.321]
    Looking forward for more samples :)
  • Guaranteed 4 star if you open 100 PBC at the same time, so you needed to save up.
  • ^ For the humor impaired, no not really...
  • KingOfPain wrote: »
    Guaranteed 4 star if you open 100 PBC at the same time, so you needed to save up.

    Really guaranteed? I have 200 crystal from PBC shards saving, not yet decide when to open.
  • I opened 5 or 10 shards pbc and dupe my 4 star Ultra Magnus plus several 3 star dupes
  • ReworkRework Posts: 122
    All evidence I have seen is that they are different.
    I opened 18 Full PBCs at the start of the month and got 7 3* bots.
    I have also opened at least 30 Shard PBCs and all were 2* bots.
  • I got my first 4* from a pbc yesterday, it just happened to be a shard pbc but I've been playing since the second week of April and that's the first time I've been lucky on the pbc at all.
  • ManthroManthro Posts: 2,752
    hoolienwee wrote: »
    KingOfPain wrote: »
    Guaranteed 4 star if you open 100 PBC at the same time, so you needed to save up.

    Really guaranteed? I have 200 crystal from PBC shards saving, not yet decide when to open.

    No, not guaranteed. He's messing with you
  • Stitch626Stitch626 Posts: 286
    edited December 2017
    Stitch626 wrote: »
    Im pretty sure the stats on both are the same. Its all luck.

    Ive opened 10 full PBC's all at the same time before and got nothing but 2*'s. Ive also opened up a single PBC I formed with shards and received a 4*.

    So, your experience is nothing unusual or controversial. Its just the game.

    So you think 3 of the same 2 stars in row is nothing usual.

    Not anymore unusual than flipping a coin and it landing on heads 4 times in a row. Its rare, but just because something rare happens, doesnt mean its now more common than it was before.

    No one here is posting any numbers which would lead anyone to believe that these crystals are different - or, if they are different, the difference is VERY minimal. Opening up even 100 crystals at once would not give you an accurate "odds" number.

    At the end of the day, even if the "whole" PBC has higher odds to open a 4*, the odds are not going to be significantly higher. Both of these crystals are meant to be the most basic crystals you can open...so the odds on getting anything other than a 2* are going to be very low.
  • TerminalTerminal Posts: 789
    The 3* rate is extremely obvious. No one has gotten equal or more 3* from shards over full, it's always heavily skewed to full.

    There's hundreds of openings in YouTube videos.

    You don't need 10,000 openings to start to get an idea.

    Hundreds actually is enough. A few hundred and you start to get close to 95% confidence. If people don't know how data works it would be best not to comment.

    If the rate is different it should be renamed because it's misleading. I don't care if they're different rates, but don't pretend like they're the same thing. Make it the same or change the name.
  • Kr_DCKr_DC Posts: 15
    edited December 2017
    I have opened 100 x PBC crystals (mostly stashed from last month) just this week alone.
    All of them were 2* bots. Not a single 3* lol..
    Probably the worst ever drop rate I have experienced since I started playing in April. Previously I get about 1 x 3* bot from about 20 pulls.

  • iSunnyiSunny Posts: 20
    I'd like to keep this post up to the top
  • DaveJLDaveJL Posts: 1,779
    Well logically it sort of stands to reason. A PBC to buy is 100 energon. 100 energon is much harder to accrue than 2000 PBC shards.
    They wont ever confirm it in writing, but honestly, it is so obvious that anyone arguing it is doing so just because they love a good argument, or don’t open a lot of crystals (especially fully formed ones)
  • Starting from april 20, 2017 (when I started playing)

    4acgmbpoxeyt.png
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