Every Crystal Ever Bundle = Daily Crystal Bundle

So I saw this bundle got all excited and stuff and bought it thinking finally I will get at least 1 decent 4 star... nope I was wrong out of every single crystal I got a total of four 3 stars and the rest was all 2 stars. Not a single 4 star at all. I feel like I paid $20 for a bunch of daily crystals.

Comments

  • TKOTKO Posts: 246
    Gutzdeep wrote: »
    So I saw this bundle got all excited and stuff and bought it thinking finally I will get at least 1 decent 4 star... nope I was wrong out of every single crystal I got a total of four 3 stars and the rest was all 2 stars. Not a single 4 star at all. I feel like I paid $20 for a bunch of daily crystals.

    It is what it is. You don't get 4* just cause you buy a bunch of crystals.
  • Mufc14Mufc14 Posts: 587
    Gutzdeep wrote: »
    So I saw this bundle got all excited and stuff and bought it thinking finally I will get at least 1 decent 4 star... nope I was wrong out of every single crystal I got a total of four 3 stars and the rest was all 2 stars. Not a single 4 star at all. I feel like I paid $20 for a bunch of daily crystals.
    That’s the usual pal

  • Ha. at least it was reasonably priced. Go check out some of the mcoc “deals” and tell me how bad it is then.
  • DrShotgunDrShotgun Posts: 2,027
    This is a good crystal deal to save just for extra Cyclonus chips...that's about it.
  • I'm actually amazed so many ppl defend kabam over stuff like this which is the actual problem it justifies to them that its cool to do it.

    Reasonably priced... yea if you were actually awarded something... basically I paid 20 bucks for a a bunch of 24 hours crystals that aint right on any level.
  • ktomovktomov Posts: 216
    edited September 2018
    Actually, that was your own choice. This kind of deals are helpful for newbies like me. I'm playing for about a little more of 5 months and those crystals are being good deal for me. Duping couple of 2* and probably duping some 3* (I'm yet to open them, waiting for the new bot chips).

    You can't really expect 5 4* for that price. The deal is reasonable, but it's good for new players to help them a bit in the catch up game. Not for the ones that are looking at 5 stars bots.

    I guess you've expected a little too much for your 20 bucks.
  • DaveJLDaveJL Posts: 1,706
    why not just buy the 28.99 deal with the 4* bot crystal if you wanted a guaranteed 4*? Even 37 crystals with a 1.5% chance per crystal still wasn't favourable odds - and you knew the odds when you bought that bundle.
  • I’m with Gutz here, been playing the games since release and never got lucky on my account with deals. Always need to hard farm to get what I want. I have a friend account which he opened up all the top prizes on every deal he purchase almost never miss.
  • Nobody's 'defending' Kabam, people merely explained how things work. Especially brains.
  • ManthroManthro Posts: 2,736
    edited September 2018
    I love that I basically don't need to comment on this nonsense anymore. Everyone does such an incredibly better job at being an absolute condescending [Removed by Moderation] than I have ever been able to accomplish.

    My work here is done.
  • I bought the pack and got one useless 4*, but a lot of useful 3* and 2* dupes for my commander level 30 team, as well as a head start on Cyclonus 3* chips (if you had the patience to wait 2 days for the new bot of month after buying the package before opening).

    If you do the math on 1.5% 4* drop rates and 37 crystals, you have a 57% chance of getting no 4* bots. So almost like a coin flip... However if you pull all 2*, then we can talk complaints and lawsuits since that's a super slim 0.001% chance. If you can't do the math, consider that something very useful to learn.
  • HugeZebra wrote: »
    I bought the pack and got one useless 4*, but a lot of useful 3* and 2* dupes for my commander level 30 team, as well as a head start on Cyclonus 3* chips (if you had the patience to wait 2 days for the new bot of month after buying the package before opening).

    If you do the math on 1.5% 4* drop rates and 37 crystals, you have a 57% chance of getting no 4* bots. So almost like a coin flip... However if you pull all 2*, then we can talk complaints and lawsuits since that's a super slim 0.001% chance. If you can't do the math, consider that something very useful to learn.

    I'm not great with maths, but I'm pretty sure the odds for 37 crystals is still 1.5% for a 4*. As each crystal spin is 1.5%, the odds don't increase just because you have more crystals.
    This means you don't have a 57% chance of not getting a 4* from 37 crystals, you have a 98.5%chance of not getting a 4* from 37 crystals. The odds aren't cumulative.
  • CandKaneCandKane Posts: 718
    edited September 2018
    OP7842 wrote: »
    HugeZebra wrote: »
    I bought the pack and got one useless 4*, but a lot of useful 3* and 2* dupes for my commander level 30 team, as well as a head start on Cyclonus 3* chips (if you had the patience to wait 2 days for the new bot of month after buying the package before opening).

    If you do the math on 1.5% 4* drop rates and 37 crystals, you have a 57% chance of getting no 4* bots. So almost like a coin flip... However if you pull all 2*, then we can talk complaints and lawsuits since that's a super slim 0.001% chance. If you can't do the math, consider that something very useful to learn.

    I'm not great with maths, but I'm pretty sure the odds for 37 crystals is still 1.5% for a 4*. As each crystal spin is 1.5%, the odds don't increase just because you have more crystals.
    This means you don't have a 57% chance of not getting a 4* from 37 crystals, you have a 98.5%chance of not getting a 4* from 37 crystals. The odds aren't cumulative.

    This is absolutely correct, and is the primary reason statistics screws with people. Each crystal is its own event, so your odds don't change no matter how many you open.
  • It is correct that the odds of each spin yielding a 4* don't change from spin to spin. But we're looking at probabilities of outcomes from the whole set of 37 spins.

    Let's pretend this is coin flipping so I can use outcome names T and H. T = 4* bot, H = non-4* bot, and P(T) = 0.015, P(H) = 0.985. Since each spin's outcome is independent of the next, we get total probabilities by multiplying 37 P(T)'s and P(H)'s in various combinations.

    If we only had 3 spins, we have these possible results:
    TTT prob = 1.5% * 1.5% * 1.5% * 1 way to get 3 T out of 3 spins
    TTH, THT, HTT prob = 1.5% * 1.5% * 98.5% * 3 ways to get two T out of 3 spins
    THH, HHT, HTH prob = 1.5% * 98.5% * 98.5% * 3 ways to get one T out of 3 spins
    HHH prob = 98.5% * 98.5% * 98.5% * 1 way to get zero T out of 3 spins

    More generally, the probability of exactly N tails is P(H)^(37-N) * P(T)^N * C(37,N) where C(37,N) is the combinatorial function that gives number of ways to choose combination of N items out of 37 ignoring ordering.

    Probability of exactly 0 tails is 0.985^37 * 0.015^0 * 1 = 0.5716 (57%)
    Probability of exactly 1 tail is 0.985^36 * 0.015^1 * 37 = 0.322 (32%)
    Probability of exactly 2 tails is 0.985^35 * 0.015^2 * 666 = 0.088 (8.8%)
    Probability of exactly 3 tails is 0.985^34 * 0.015^3 * 7770 = 0.0156 (1.6%)
    Probability of exactly 4 tails is 0.985^33 * 0.015^4 * 66045 = 0.0020 (0.2%)
    ...
    Probability of exactly 37 tails is 0.985^0 * 0.015^37 * 1 = 3.2e-68 (0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000032%)

    So your results for 37 spins are going to give you at least a 1.5% chance of getting a 4* bot, but you're leaving a lot of favorable outcomes on the table. Intuitively, if we increased the number of spins to a million, yes you still have at least a 1.5% chance to get a 4* bot, but practically speaking, you have 100% chance to get at least one 4* bot.

    Sorry, could not resist bad joke - intuition and statistics don't go together. And now I'm going to have to flag all you guys for making my brain hurt so late at night when I could have been grinding raids and arena instead.
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