RNG algorithm speculation - not so random

小龙女小龙女 Posts: 640
edited April 18 in General Discussion
Key questions.
1. Is the RNG truelly random?
2. Will you be much more likely to roll bots you don’t own?
3. If you own all 4 star, and you open 3-5 crystal, will you be much less likely to roll another 4 star and much more likely to roll 3 star?
4. If you own all 4 star, and you open 2-4 crystal, will you be much less likely to roll another 4 star and much more likely to roll 2-3 star?
5. Is the 3-5 crystal bought by energon much more likely to roll a 4 star than a 3-5 crystal obtained from missions?

Evidence 1: I rolled over 30 4 star bots, all of them are only dupped once, never 3 times.
Evidence 2: I have over 30 4 stars, and when I forge away windblade, the next crystal gave me a windblade.
Evidence 3: all my 8 5 stars are not dupped.
Evidence 4: when I had a total of 15 4 stars, it started dupping but happens much less than getting new bot
Evidence 5:when I had less than 30 4 stars bots, I rolled tons of 3-5 crystal bought from energon, the chance of rolling 4 star was higher than the chance advertised by crystal information
Evidence 6: after getting over 30 4 star bots, I opened 15 3-5 crystals gotten from missions, I got 0 4 stars....

The ultimate question: will forging some of my 4 stars give me more 4 stars rolls than if I just horde all 4 stars around? Will forging all 4 stars give me even more advantage?

Comments

  • KillMasterCKillMasterC Posts: 2,790
    edited April 18
    I've written a program to simulate the crystal opening of this game according to the drop rate Kabam provides. I'd say it more or less reflects the Kabam reality. All the other elements you think may interfere, are pure superstition.

    Maybe I'll post an English version of that simulator but your can find any weighted RNG algorithm online and have a try.

    Btw: there are easy ways to implement some sort of 'rigged' RNG which looks into your account and keep certain bots elusive. It's common practice in greedy Chinese game companies, but less likely in Kabam.
  • Darm0kDarm0k Posts: 1,964
    I’m pretty sure it reduces the chance of getting a resource you need to .001% and increases the probability of getting one you don’t need and already have too much of.
  • CandKaneCandKane Posts: 718
    The old 1* Crystals did in fact look into your account and only gave you 1* bots that you didn't have (which you could abuse to rapidly forge up a specific class). While it's possible other crystals do the same, I haven't seen any conclusive evidence of it happening.
  • Hey y'all --

    This kind of chatter falls far too close to conspiracies and therefore isn't allowed on the forums. I'm closing it down. Sorry for the disappointment!
This discussion has been closed.