A couple of questions I probably won't get answers to:

DrShotgunDrShotgun Posts: 1,966
edited July 9 in General Discussion
So
Question 1: Who determines what the bots for next mo the will be? Like the 3/4/5* offerings, and when are they determined? Like, do you know a month or so in advance or is it picked out of a hat a few days before the fact? I'd love to buy Megatron this month but am awaiting Grimlock and Prowl, and with my luck they'd come on the same month after I spent my chips.


Question 2: How do the RNG work in the crystals? I know this has been brought up before, but I don't remythe answer. I know the "spin" is just an animation. When the crystals are awarded/bought/earned, are they set when they go into your inventory or are they actually "random"...and does spinning vs popping make a difference in who comes out of the crystal?
Love to hear an answer from a mod on at least one.

Comments

  • Canuck33Canuck33 Posts: 235
    i think I can at least answer part of the crystal question. When you acquire a crystal the bot is not set until you hit open or drop that crystal into its spin. You could potentially save 100 5* crystals until a certain bot is added to the pool and instantly have 100 chances at that said bot. This has been proven over time.

    I don't think spinning vs popping has any effect at all, but I can't answer that one for sure.
  • KillMasterCKillMasterC Posts: 2,717
    If you know how RNG works: 100 5* crystals don't guarantee you any specific bots.
  • NidRobNidRob Posts: 113
    I opened more than 40 5* crystals in last 6 months just to pull og megs and I never did. So it’s all kabamed
  • DrShotgunDrShotgun Posts: 1,966
    edited July 9
    NidRob wrote: »
    I opened more than 40 5* crystals in last 6 months just to pull og megs and I never did. So it’s all kabamed

    Good thing he's available now.
    Who DID you pull? I can't see 40 crystals and ending up with nothing good. I've opened about 25 or so and had pretty good luck. Only 3-4 I really don't use and they're good, and 2 of those came from t4kc's
  • JIMMY_SABJIMMY_SAB Posts: 597
    edited July 10
    DrShotgun wrote: »
    So


    Question 2: How do the RNG work in the crystals? I know this has been brought up before, but I don't remythe answer. I know the "spin" is just an animation. When the crystals are awarded/bought/earned, are they set when they go into your inventory or are they actually "random"...and does spinning vs popping make a difference in who comes out of the crystal?
    Love to hear an answer from a mod on at least one.

    I like this one. Check out this website that explains RNG (as simply as I’ve ever seen — it’s still hard to wrap your brain around it though).

    https://www.random.org/randomness/


    I’m of the belief that Kabam uses a modified version of True RNG to avoid being associated with gambling (which is often Periodic RNG). My guess is that the input source for the RNG is the user base as a whole meaning the total amount of a certain bot given out is being factored against the entire player base (a value that changes constantly depending on how you count a player). Doing this method ensures the posted drop rates are in fact true but the drop itself is still controlled.

    @Kabam Miike @Kabam Rimehaven @Kabam Vydious @Kabam Tenebrous @Kabam Custos
  • JIMMY_SABJIMMY_SAB Posts: 597
    TLDR:
    The “die” being rolled to produce a truly random number is the “active” player base aka anyone who has a crystal/opens one. That number than drives the RNG algorithm and produces a drop.
  • DaveJLDaveJL Posts: 1,672
    JIMMY_SAB wrote: »
    TLDR:
    The “die” being rolled to produce a truly random number is the “active” player base aka anyone who has a crystal/opens one. That number than drives the RNG algorithm and produces a drop.

    I remember a long long time ago that something was posted on the mcoc forums that would suggest you are barking up the right tree
  • JIMMY_SABJIMMY_SAB Posts: 597
    DaveJL wrote: »
    JIMMY_SAB wrote: »
    TLDR:
    The “die” being rolled to produce a truly random number is the “active” player base aka anyone who has a crystal/opens one. That number than drives the RNG algorithm and produces a drop.

    I remember a long long time ago that something was posted on the mcoc forums that would suggest you are barking up the right tree

    4v30xb0gyen4.gif
  • SynthwaveSynthwave Posts: 975
    Then there was the Kabam patent pending for the algorithm that influences the RNG to essentially entice players to spend more.

    I believe they claimed it was never implemented, but there was someone claiming to be an ex-dev on the MCOC forum who said they did implement it and it's all true.

    Take that any way you want. I know for me after drawing 3 T4C brawler sparks in a row (the one bot class that isn't 100% forged on my roster and I have zero desire for) I can't help but think there's some kind of shenanigans going on.
  • BeastdadBeastdad Posts: 803
    Synthwave wrote: »
    can't help but think there's some kind of shenanigans going on.

    It’s very clear that there are, and I don’t need an ex developer confession to convince me of it.
  • DrShotgunDrShotgun Posts: 1,966
    I guess the question to be answered is this:
    If 100 Nemesis Prime crystals are given out (using 100 as a round number) does each player have a 1% chance of getting him in a 4*/5*? In that case the law of statistics say each player COULD actually get a good one, OOORRRR, does Kabam limit the number given out to only 1 out of 100?....making it truly 1%. Kabam knows how many crystals will be earned, making the number of NPs a certain, and sticking with the "1%" chance to receive him.
    Then theres the mysterious algorithm spoken of before to entice more spending...how would that not fall under the now heavily scrutinized "loot box" issues being looked at by the power that be?
  • JIMMY_SABJIMMY_SAB Posts: 597
    DrShotgun wrote: »
    I guess the question to be answered is this:
    If 100 Nemesis Prime crystals are given out (using 100 as a round number) does each player have a 1% chance of getting him in a 4*/5*? In that case the law of statistics say each player COULD actually get a good one, OOORRRR, does Kabam limit the number given out to only 1 out of 100?....making it truly 1%. Kabam knows how many crystals will be earned, making the number of NPs a certain, and sticking with the "1%" chance to receive him.
    Then theres the mysterious algorithm spoken of before to entice more spending...how would that not fall under the now heavily scrutinized "loot box" issues being looked at by the power that be?

    This scenario is too tempting to ignore. Let me take a crack at it.

    Variables (not all but the ones that keep this simple):
    1. 100 crystals to 100 different players
    2. Each opening occurs at a different time (at least 1 second apart)
    3. The random source aka “die” that drives the algorithm for drop is a snapshot of all players with a NP crystal. In this case, the 100 players named above. Imagine a 100 sided die that is rolled each time a “spin” occurs (below)

    The Spin:
    1. Each opening has a 1% chance to land NP per Kabam published drop rates. Purely a guess here, but that calculation is such that the “die” mentioned above does nothing more than kick off the process of RNG. As a constraint, the RNG values are no less than 1%.
    2. That 1% is chance is retained each spin no matter how many players of the 100 pull a NP. Technically, all 100 can pull him. Hence keeping it ethical.


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